Causal Layered Analysis of the causes of destabilization of the ruling order in the Southwest Asian region
Authors
1 Master's student in Defense Futures Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Army Command and Staff University, Tehran, Iran.
2 PhD in strategic defense sciences of National Defense Strategic Studies and Research Institute and assistant professor of Khatam-al-Anbia Air Defense University
Abstract
After the Second World War, the international system faced changes in several stages. International processes of crisis and controlled conflict tell the signs of regional and international instability in the last years of the Cold War. The new emerging order makes sense based on the processes of change in the power equation. The current research was conducted in order to analyze the causes of the destabilization of the ruling order in the Southwest Asia region. Based on the method of layered analysis of the causes, the causes considered in the research by conducting library studies and holding statistical brainstorming sessions and presenting a questionnaire to a sample community of 57 experts and the obtained data were analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistical methods using SPSS software. In the analysis of the causes of the occurrence based on the degree of influence of the causes, the duration of the influence and the number of opinions of the respondents regarding the correlation of the current new order, these causes were cited. The results of the research showed that (15) the cause at the level of the litany layer, (7) the cause at the level of causal systems or social, economic and cultural systems, (10) the cause at the level of worldview and discourses and finally (10) the cause at the level of Fourth, the level of metaphors and myths were identified, which are considered as the causes of destabilization of the ruling order in the Southwest Asian region.
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