Background & Purpose: In the face of disruptive technological megatrends, defense technological universities confront the fundamental challenge of cultural adaptation. This research aims to develop future scenarios for the organizational culture of Malek Ashtar University of Technology (MUT), providing a strategic framework to manage this transformation amidst its dual missions of maintaining military stability and the imperative for technological innovation.
Methodology: This study was conducted using an exploratory mixed-methods approach with the scenario planning method in two main phases. The first phase (quantitative-qualitative), leveraging the Delphi method with an expert panel (n=15), identified and prioritized eight key drivers (technological megatrends). The second phase (qualitative), using impact/uncertainty analysis and based on the organizational culture model previously validated by the authors, selected two critical uncertainties—"Approach to Technological Adoption" and "Governing Paradigm of Cultural Transformation"—as the main axes to construct the scenario matrix.
Findings: Four distinct and plausible scenarios were developed for the 2031 horizon: 1) The Pioneering University (Proactive Approach, Open Culture), 2) The Glass Laboratory (Passive Approach, Open Culture), 3) The Smart Fortress (Proactive Approach, Hierarchical/Closed Culture), and 4) The Technology Museum (Passive Approach, Hierarchical/Closed Culture). Each scenario depicts a coherent future shaped by the interplay between the university's strategic choices and external technological pressures.
Conclusion: The developed scenarios provide a strategic tool for the university's leaders and policymakers to challenge their mental models and understand the long-term consequences of different cultural paths. Instead of offering a single prediction, this framework enhances the capacity for futures thinking and the design of adaptive and resilient strategies in the face of deep technological uncertainties.